Two Party Preferred Voting Intention (%) (2016-2022)
| Recent Election Results | L-NP | ALP |
| % | % | |
| Election May 21, 2022 | 47.9 | 52.1 |
| Election, May 18, 2019 | 51.5 | 48.5 |
| Election, July 2, 2016 | 50.3 | 49.7 |
| Election, September 7, 2013 | 53.5 | 46.5 |
| Election, August 21, 2010 | 49.9 | 50.1 |
| Election, November 24, 2007 | 47.3 | 52.7 |
| Election, October 9, 2004 | 52.7 | 47.3 |
| Election, November 10, 2001 | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| Election, October 3^, 1998 | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| Election, March 2, 1996 | 53.6 | 46.4 |
| Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote | Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2016/19 Federal Elections | |||
| % | % | % | % | |
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9-15, 2022 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 47 | 53 |
| May 2-8, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| April 25 - May 1, 2022 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| April 18-24, 2022 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 47 | 53 |
| April 11-17, 2022 | 45 | 55 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| April 4-10, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| March 28 - April 3, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| March 21-27, 2022 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| March 14-20, 2022 | 42 | 58 | 43.5 | 56.5 |
| March 3-13, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| February 24 - March 2, 2022 (Post Ukraine War) | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| February 14-23, 2022 (Pre-Ukraine War) | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| January 31 - February 13, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| January 17-30, 2022 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| January 4-16, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| 2022 | ||||
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2021 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2021 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2021 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2021 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 48 | 52 |
| October 16/17 & 23/24, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| October 2/3 & 9/10, 2021 | 47 | 53 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| September 18/19 & 25/26, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| September 4/5 & 11/12, 2021 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 49 | 51 |
| August 21/22 & 28/29, 2021 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 47 | 53 |
| Aug 7/8 & 14/15, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| July 24/25 & 31/ Aug 1, 2021 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 48 | 52 |
| July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 49 | 51 |
| June 12/13 & 19/20, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| May 29/30 & June 5/6, 2021 | 49 | 51 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| March 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| 2021 | ||||
| November 14/15 & 21/22, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| October 17/18 & 24/25, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| August 8/19 & 15/16, 2020 | 54 | 46 | 55.5 | 44.5 |
| July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 54.5 | 45.5 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 53 | 47 |
| February 29/March 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 47 | 53 | 49 | 51 |
| 2020 | ||||
| 2019 Federal Election - May 18, 2019 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 48.5 |
| Morgan Poll: Federal Election 2016-2019 | ||||
| May 2019 | 48 | 52 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| May 4/5, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 27/28, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 20/21, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 6/7, 2019 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48 | 52 |
| March 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 | 45 | 55 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| February 16/17, 2019 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48 | 52 |
| February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 45 | 55 |
| 2019 | ||||
| August 25/26, 2018 | 46 | 54 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| August 24, 2018 - Scott Morrison emerges victorious in a three way leadership ballot and becomes Prime Minister | ||||
| August 18/19, 2018 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 49 | 51 |
| March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 | 49 | 51 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018 | 46 | 54 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| 2018 |
^1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election.
The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
Two Party Preferred Trends (2024-25)
| Preferences distributed by how electors told us they should be | Preferences distributed by preference flows at the 2022 Federal Election |
|||||
| DATE | ALP | L-NP | MARGIN | ALP | L-NP | MARGIN |
| June 30, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| June 23, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| June 16, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| June 9, 2024 | 53.5% | 46.5% | 7.0% | 53.5% | 46.5% | 7.0% |
| June 2, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| May 26, 2024 | 48.5% | 51.5% | -3.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| May 19, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| May 12, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| May 5, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| Apr 28, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| Apr 21, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 51.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 49.5% | 50.5% | -1.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% |
| Mar 31, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
Two Party Preferred Trends (2018-22)
| Date | Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote |
Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2016/19 Federal Elections |
||
| test | L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9-15, 2022 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 47 | 53 |
| May 2-8, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| April 25 – May 1, 2022 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| April 18-24, 2022 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 47 | 53 |
| April 11-17, 2022 | 45 | 55 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| April 4-10, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| March 28 – April 3, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| March 21-27, 2022 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| March 14-20, 2022 | 42 | 58 | 43.5 | 56.5 |
| March 3-13, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| February 24 – March 2, 2022 (Post Ukraine War) | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| February 14-23, 2022 (Pre-Ukraine War) | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| January 31 – February 13, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| January 17-30, 2022 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| January 4-16, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| 2022 | ||||
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2021 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2021 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2021 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2021 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 48 | 52 |
| October 16/17 & 23/24, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| October 2/3 & 9/10, 2021 | 47 | 53 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| September 18/19 & 25/26, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| September 4/5 & 11/12, 2021 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 49 | 51 |
| August 21/22 & 28/29, 2021 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 47 | 53 |
| Aug 7/8 & 14/15, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| July 24/25 & 31/ Aug 1, 2021 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 48 | 52 |
| July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 49 | 51 |
| June 12/13 & 19/20, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| May 29/30 & June 5/6, 2021 | 49 | 51 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| March 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| 2021 | ||||
| November 14/15 & 21/22, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| October 17/18 & 24/25, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| August 8/19 & 15/16, 2020 | 54 | 46 | 55.5 | 44.5 |
| July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 54.5 | 45.5 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 53 | 47 |
| February 29/March 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 47 | 53 | 49 | 51 |
| 2020 | ||||
| 2019 Federal Election – May 18, 2019 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 48.5 |
| May 2019 | 48 | 52 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| May 4/5, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 27/28, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 20/21, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 6/7, 2019 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48 | 52 |
| March 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 | 45 | 55 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| February 16/17, 2019 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48 | 52 |
| February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 45 | 55 |
| 2019 | ||||
| August 25/26, 2018 | 46 | 54 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| August 24, 2018 – Scott Morrison emerges victorious in a three way leadership ballot and becomes Prime Minister | ||||
| August 18/19, 2018 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 49 | 51 |
| March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 | 49 | 51 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018 | 46 | 54 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| 2018 | ||||
